Natural hazard uncertainty assessment: modeling and decision support

Content: Contributors vii 1 Uncertainty in Natural Hazards, Modeling and Decision Support: An Introduction to This Volume 1Karin Riley, Matthew Thompson, Peter Webley, and Kevin D Hyde Part I: Uncertainty, Communication, and Decision Support 9 2 Natural Hazard Modeling and Uncertainty Analysis 11Matthew Thompson and Jord J Warmink3 Understanding Uncertainty as a Key Interdisciplinary Problem in Earth System Science 21Florian Rauser and Gernot Geppert 4 Uncertainty and Probability in Wildfire Management Decision Support: An Example from the United States 31Matthew Thompson, David Calkin, Joe H Scott, and Michael Hand  5 Role of Uncertainty in Decision Support for Volcanic Ash Cloud Modeling 43Peter Webley  Part II: Geological Hazards 57 6 Building an Uncertainty Modeling Framework for Real?-Time VATD 59Peter Webley, Abani Patra, Marcus Bursik, E Bruce Pitman, Jonathan Dehn, Tarung Singh, Puneet Singla, Matthew D Jones, Reza Madankan, E Ramona Stefanescu, and Solene Pouget  7 Uncertainties in Estimating Magma Source Parameters from InSAR Observation 89Wenyu Gong, Zhong Lu, and Franz Meyer  8 Improving Model Simulations of Volcanic Emission Clouds and Assessing Model Uncertainties 105Nina Iren Kristiansen, Delia Arnold, Christian Maurer, Julius Vira, Razvan RaÌ dulescu, Damien Martin, ndreas Stohl, Kerstin Stebel, Mikhail Sofiev, Colin O\'Dowd, and Gerhard Wotawa  9 Uncertainty Assessment of Pyroclastic Density Currents at Mount Vesuvius (Italy) Simulated Through the Energy Cone Model 125Pablo Tierz, Laura Sandri, Antonio Costa, Roberto Sulpizio, Lucia Zaccarelli, Mauro Antonio Di Vito, and Warner Marzocchi  10 Earthquake Loss Estimation in the Gyeongju Area, Southeastern Korea, Using a Site Classification Map 147Su Young Kang and Kwang?-Hee Kim  11 Implications of Different Digital Elevation Models and Preprocessing Techniques to Delineate Debris Flow Inundation Hazard Zones in El Salvador 167Eric Ross Anderson, Robert E Griffin, and Daniel E Irwin  12 Evaluating the Performance of FLO2D for Simulating Past Lahar Events at the Most Active Mexican Volcanoes: Popocatepetl and Volcan de Colima 179Lizeth Caballero, Lucia Capra, and Rosario Vazquez  Part III: Biophysical and Climatic Hazards 191 13 An Uncertainty Analysis of Wildfire Modeling 193Karin Riley and Matthew Thompson 14 Fire and Smoke Remote Sensing and Modeling Uncertainties: Case Studies in Northern Sub?]Saharan Africa 215Charles Ichoku, Luke T Ellison, Yun Yue, Jun Wang, and Johannes W Kaiser  15 Uncertainty and Complexity Tradeoffs When Integrating Fire Spread with Hydroecological Projections 231Maureen C Kennedy and Donald McKenzie  16 Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation for Projections of Extremes in Monthly Area Burned Under Climate Change: A Case Study in the Coastal Plain of Georgia, USA 245Adam J Terando, Brian Reich, Krishna Pacifici, Jennifer Costanza, Alexa McKerrow, and Jaime A Collazo  17 Simulating Vegetation Change, Carbon Cycling, and Fire Over the Western United States Using CMIP5 Climate Projections 257D Bachelet, T Sheehan, K Ferschweiler, and J Abatzoglou  18 Sensitivity of Vegetation Fires to Climate, Vegetation, and Anthropogenic Drivers in the HESFIRE Model: Consequences for Fire Modeling and Projection Uncertainties 277Yannick Le Page  19 Uncertainties in Predicting Debris Flow Hazards Following Wildfire 287Kevin D Hyde, Karin Riley, and Cathelijne Stoof  20 Capturing Spatiotemporal Variation in Wildfires for Improving Postwildfire Debris?-Flow Hazard Assessments 301 Jessica R Haas, Matthew Thompson, Anne Tillery, and Joe H Scott  21 Uncertainty in Estimation of Debris?-Flow Triggering Rainfall: Evaluation and Impact on Identification of Threshold Relationships 319E I Nikolopoulos, F Marra, and M Borga  22 Prospects in Landslide Prediction: Confronting the Challenges of Precipitation Uncertainty 329Natasha Markuzon, Catherine Slesnick, Erin Leidy, John Regan, Xiang Gao, and Adam Schlosser  Index 337